Turkish authorities and experts predict that the coronavirus pandemic will peak in March and the country may end the mandatory mask rule in the summer if no new variant emerges.
A recent report said the Marmara region, which includes Istanbul and other big cities with a high number of cases, has already reached a plateau in terms of cases and is seeing a decline. No great surge in cases is expected for Anatolian cities, according to the report.
Most cases are concentrated in big cities, though the pandemic is altogether in a new stage in the country due to the prevalence of the omicron variant. This fast-spreading variant has so far been less fatal than earlier strains. Experts expect the surge, which currently corresponds to between 70,000 and 80,000 daily cases, will reach its maximum height in mid-March before a decline.
A drop in the number of positive tests has left experts optimistic. Positive test rates are below 20% daily, while the virus R or reproduction number, which represents the number of people that a host will infect, is 0.91. In other words, on average, every ten infected people infect nine people.
However, deaths remain a concern, along with a possible fluctuation in hospitalizations. Data shows people at the age of 65 and above make up 15% of the total number of cases and around 85% of fatalities. The majority of fatalities are those who are not vaccinated or who have missed at least one dose. Fatalities are very low among vaccinated senior citizens. Turkey offers three vaccines, including China’s CoronaVac, Pfizer-BioNTech’s messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine and the domestically developed Turkovac. All of these provide at least 95% protection against severe cases of COVID-19 and fatalities. Still, authorities say booster shots are needed for everyone. Nearly 20 million people are still missing their booster shots.
Turkey is also on alert regarding BA.2, a subvariant of omicron, which was reported in India, Philippines and Denmark but has not been reported in the country so far. It may spread a little more easily than now-waning omicron, some scientists think, and may be a little more effective at eluding the protections vaccines and previous infections provide. So far, indications are it doesn’t make people any sicker than omicron, which still wound up spiking hospitalization and death rates simply because it affected so many more people.
Experts anticipate the recent surge in cases, evident since the last months of 2021, will eventually die down with the onset of spring. Assuming no new variant emerges, as warming weather enables more people to spend more time outdoors instead of in insufficiently ventilated indoors venues, Turkey may gather pace in curbing the pandemic, according to experts. In the summer, authorities hope to remove the mandatory mask rule outdoors, a measure already taken in other countries.
