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Central Bank raised the year-end inflation forecast for 2020 and 2021

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Wednesday raised the year-end inflation forecast for both this year and next.

Turkey’s year-end inflation rate is expected to hit 12.1% for 2020, up from 8.9% in its previous report, the bank’s governor said during the presentation of the fourth, and the year’s latest, inflation report.

Murat Uysal said the figure will fluctuate between 11.1% and 13.1% through the end of the year with a 70% probability.

The upward revision was driven by the higher course of exchange rates, output gap and food prices.

The bank also revised upward annual inflation for next year to 9.4% from 6.2% before stabilizing to around 5% in the medium term.

The governor said the revisions are based on the assumption that there would be no second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

As laid out in Turkey’s new economic program announced by the government this September, the country’s inflation rate target is 10.5% this year, 8% next year and 6% in 2022.

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